Why shenzhen property market Spring Festival “almost zero deal”?The original intention of regulation has been demonstrated

2022-04-30 0 By

In the Spring Festival of the Year of the Tiger, the eagerly awaited “hometown-buying boom” in the third and fourth tier cities has been cancelled, which also makes people pay more attention to the first and second tier cities.But with the “local New Year” policy supported by the first and second tier cities, also a few happy a few sad.In sharp contrast to the hot Shanghai and Beijing, Shenzhen property market “almost zero transactions during the Spring Festival”, what has happened?”Zero transaction” of the Spring Festival shenzhen second-hand housing intermediary Yang Guang (pseudonym) in the store door, also pasted for “plain sailing” couplets.But fewer than 10 of the dozens of colleagues who had been in the same boat with Yang guang were left.In this is not plain sailing year, Yang Guang witnessed the shenzhen property market all the way ups and downs.As a local, Yang didn’t plan to take a holiday this Spring Festival, but he only showed a group of clients around the house for less than five minutes.”I don’t want to take a vacation, and the housing market is taking a vacation.”Yang Guang is somewhat helpless.Statistics from Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association show that during the Spring Festival (From January 31 to February 6), the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses in Shenzhen was 0 and 1 respectively. The “zero transaction” performance surprised both inside and outside the industry.This news has long been in Yang Guang’s circle of friends “brush burst”.Yang guang said that his colleagues in Beijing had opened more than 300 contracts in January, but “nothing” was a summary of his work in Shenzhen and his colleagues during the Spring Festival.According to the transaction situation of new housing during the Spring Festival of 2022 released by The Middle School Research Institute, the total transaction volume of new commercial housing in Shenzhen during the Spring Festival was 90,400 square meters. Except for some online red disk, most of the real estate is not ideal.Although the new house wait-and-see mood is still heavy, but Yang Guang said, “do new house colleagues or a little better than us, after all, the price is relatively cheap and convenient loans, during the Spring Festival also did a lot of new plate 10% off, push special housing, home appliances and other activities.”Fall to the “zero” Spring Festival, just shenzhen second-hand housing market in 2021 a year in miniature.Shenzhen real estate information platform shows that in 2021, a total of 40,699 second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen, a year-on-year decrease of 57.3%, hit a new low in the past 15 years;In January 2022, only 1,557 second-hand houses were sold, down 75.04% year-on-year and the lowest value in the past decade.”There are many colleagues who changed their careers to delivering food, opening restaurants and selling used cars.Some are still doing it. To earn money for their families, they drive until 1 or 2 am and come to the store at 8 or 9 am.”Yang guang said, before the business was good, the annual income of more than 300,000 yuan, now with part-time jobs, the maximum monthly income is only four or five thousand yuan.As the first city in China to implement the guiding price of second-hand houses, Shenzhen has just celebrated one year since the implementation of the policy.Industry generally believe that from the effect of policy regulation, this policy can be said to make 2021 a watershed year for the property market in Shenzhen.”More than a year ago, when we just received the second-hand housing price guidance news, we actually did not take it seriously.The group of second-hand house owners is large and scattered, how can we manage it?”But the ensuing forced takedown of listings by intermediary agencies and banks’ lending at guided prices taught him how forcefully the policy could be enforced, Mr. Yang recalled.”The most severe fall, in addition to the inflated house prices, is the market bellwether school district housing.”Yang Guang said, shenzhen school district housing “ceiling” baihua area and bagua Ling area, a lot of falls in one million yuan as a unit, than the guidance price is lower than 20 million yuan also flow of the house is also many.”One of my clients bought a school district house in 2020 and lost more than 2 million yuan in less than two years. He asked me what to do next.I said this is really no way, conventional commercial housing prices and repair opportunities, school district housing lost the protection of school district resources, the value will only accelerate the disappearance.”Yang guang said.This customer is not alone.Shenzhen property market changes so that countless fried tenants lost in the sand, but also more and more housing transactions close to the reference price, the original intention of regulation can be highlighted.Le Youjia Research center estimates and finds that before July 2021, the transaction price and reference price deviation within 10% of the transaction orders accounted for less than 20%, more than 20% of the transaction orders accounted for more than 60%;From The beginning of August, the proportion of housing with a deviation of less than 10% was significantly increased, and in October, compared with September, it was directly increased by 14 percentage points. It can be seen that more and more transaction housing prices are close to the reference price.It is worth noting that when the second-hand housing guidance was released, shenzhen Housing Bureau officials have said that the second-hand housing guidance price principle issued once a year, when the market volatility may also be released half a year.Up to now, the reference price of the second-hand house in 2022 has not been adjusted.”If the reference price is lowered according to the changes in real prices, market expectations will be unstable and buyers will be more cautious.If the reference price is raised, it is not in line with the current market situation and may send a signal to support the bottom line and rescue the market.Li Yujia, chief researcher of guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, explains the dilemma of resetting reference prices for second-hand homes.”In the process of adjustment and fall, the housing market will be the most stable when the housing demand of buyers is greater than the investment demand, and the buyers are no longer speculative tenants but owners of houses for houses.”Yang guang, who grew up in Shenzhen, also believes in the city’s resilience.Middle finger research institute released data showed that the first week after the year (February 7 – February 13) the overall transaction of the property market up, year-on-year turn down to rise.Among them, Shenzhen rose more, about 226.5%.”The current predicament of shenzhen property market is to pay for the brutal growth of the past.”Li Yujia believes that after a few months, Shenzhen property market will improve, but can not return to the past.Source: Zhongxin Finance and Economics February 16, reporter Zuo Yukun